TRB Annual Meeting 2010
Event Title: Time-Series Applications and Methods for Beginners
Event Date: Jan 10 2010 9:00AM- 5:00PM
Event Location: Marriott
Presiding Officers:
Karlaftis, Matthew G. - National Technical University of Athens, Greece
Williams, Billy M. - North Carolina State University, Raleigh
Sponsored By:
Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Computing Applications (ABJ70)
Statistical Methodology (ABJ80)
Event Description:
The purpose of this workshop is to provide an overview of time-series analysis, the various types that have been used in transportation, and when it is useful. This presentation will be illustrated with examples from studies in roadway infrastructure, traffic safety, and driver safety.
This full day workshop is targeted to researcher managers, researchers, and research support staff wishing to learn how to analyze data collected over time. This course will present time series analysis fundamentals, stressing applications of all basic concepts during the morning session. A variety of real-world traffic, safety, operations, and materials data sets will be sought and used. The afternoon session will present case studies on a variety of subjects using time series methods. Attendees are encouraged to submit data sets for inclusion in the course tutorials. Please contact Dr. Linda Boyle at [email protected] if interested in having your data used in the Workshop.
Agenda:
Morning session: What is Time-Series Analysis?
9:00
Introduction: Basic concepts, definitions of terms, some simple examples
Billy Williams
9:15
Exponential smoothing
Billy Williams
9:45
What is Arima?
Matthew Karlaftis
10:00
ARIMA with seasonal trends
10.30
Serial correlation and modeling errors
Matthew Karlaftis
11:00
Round table discussion
12:00
Lunch
Afternoon Session: Time-Series Applications
1:30
Modeling and Forecasting Freeway Traffic Data
Billy Williams
1:50
Case studies of Serial correlations
Venky Shankar
2:20
Motorway travel time prediction using kernel-based techniques
Nour-Eddin
2:50
ARIMA model examining intervention of graduated driver licensing programs
Linda Boyle
3:10
A time series analysis framework for transportation infrastructure management
Pablo L. Durango-Cohen
3:30
Question and Answer session
4:45
Wrap up
Simon Washington
Event Number:378
Event Title:
Innovative Statistical Methods in Transportation Research
Event Date:
Jan 11 2010 7:30PM- 9:30PM
Event Location:
Marriott
Presiding Officers:
Sponsored By:
Statistical Methodology (ABJ80)
Event Description:
The researchers in this session have applied advanced statistical methods to traffic data, transportation systems data, travel time estimation, and transportation safety and risk applications. Often the cutting-edge topics presented in this session will become mainstream within a couple of years. Researchers, research managers, and practitioners wishing to learn about and discuss innovative applications are encouraged to attend this session.
Presentations:Investigating Regression to the Mean in Before-and-After Speed Data Analysis (10-1209) - A01
Park, Peter Young-Jin - University of Saskatchewan, Canada
Lord, Dominique - Texas A&M University
Bias Properties of Bayesian Statistics in Finite Mixture of Negative Binomial Regression Models (10-0787) - A02
Park, Byung-Jung - Texas A&M University
Lord, Dominique - Texas A&M University
Hart, Jeff - Texas A&M University
Examining Methods for Estimating Crash Counts According to Their Collision Type (10-2572) - A03
Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy - Texas Transportation Institute
Patil, Sunil - Texas A&M University
Lord, Dominique - Texas A&M University
Development of Planning-Level Transportation Safety Models Using Full Bayesian Semiparametric Additive Techniques (10-0861) - A04
Hadayeghi, Alireza - CIMA+, Canada
Shalaby, Amer - University of Toronto, Canada
Persaud, Bhagwant - Ryerson University, Canada
Soft Computing, Parametric and Non-Parametric Statistics: A Review and Evaluation (10-0328) - A05
Karlaftis, Matthew G. - National Technical University of Athens, Greece
Vlahogianni, Eleni I. - National Technical University of Athens, Greece
Evaluation of Multivariate Poisson Log Normal Fully Bayesian Methods for Before-After Road Safety Evaluations (10-3838) - A06
Lan, Bo - Ryerson University, Canada
Persaud, Bhagwant - Ryerson University, Canada
Gaussian Processes for Traffic Flow Modeling and Forecasting (10-0752) - A07
Xie, Yuanchang - South Carolina State University
Zhao, Kaiguang - Texas A&M University
Sun, Ying - Texas A&M University
Chen, Dawei - Southeast University, China
Modeling Multiple Vehicle Occupant Injury Severity: Copula-Based Multivariate Approach (10-1807) - A08
Eluru, Naveen - University of Texas, Austin
Paleti, Rajesh - University of Texas, Austin
Pendyala, Ram M. - Arizona State University
Bhat, Chandra R. - University of Texas, Austin
Statistical Confidence Estimation Measures for Artificial Neural Networks: Application in Bus Travel Time Prediction (10-1071) - A09
Mazloumi, Ehsan - Monash University, Australia
Currie, Graham - Monash University, Australia
Rose, Geoffrey - Monash University, Australia
Sarvi, Majid - Monash University, Australia
Flexible Spatially Dependent Discrete Choice Model: Formulation and Application to Teenagers’ Weekday Recreational Activity Participation (10-1689) - A10
Bhat, Chandra R. - University of Texas, Austin
Sener, Ipek Nese - University of Texas, Austin
Eluru, Naveen - University of Texas, Austin
Investigation of Convergence and Accuracy Properties of Latin Hypercube Sampling Technique for Traffic Equilibrium Problem Under Capacity Uncertainty (10-3504) - A11
Li, Jian - Rutgers University
Ozbay, Kaan - Rutgers University
Design Requirements for Passing-Sight Distance: Risk-Based Approach (10-2992) - A12
El-Bassiouni, Shewkar - University of British Columbia, Canada
Sayed, Tarek - University of British Columbia, Canada
Link-Data-Based Approximation of Path Travel Time Distribution with Gaussian Copula Estimated Through Lasso (10-2769) - A13
Wan, Ke - Princeton University
Kornhauser, Alain L. - Princeton University
Clustering Approach to Online Freeway Traffic State Identification Using ITS Data (10-3007) - A14
Xia, Jingxin - Southeast University, China
Huang, Wei - Southeast University, China
Qian, Zhendong - Southeast University, China
Empirical Investigation of Continuous Logit Model for Departure Time Choice Using Bayesian Methods (10-1380) - A15
Lemp, Jason - University of Texas, Austin
Kockelman, Kara - University of Texas, Austin
Multiple Applications of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Technique in Predicting Rear-End Crashes at Unsignalized Intersections (10-0292) - A16
Haleem, Kirolos M. - University of Central Florida
Abdel-Aty, Mohamed A. - University of Central Florida
Santos, Joseph B - Florida Department of Transportation
Spatial Correlation in Multilevel Crash Frequency Models: Effects of Different Neighboring Structures (10-0333) - A17
Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan - Universidad de Costa Rica
Jovanis, Paul P. - Pennsylvania State University
Bayesian Trajectory-Based Reconstruction of Rear-Ending Events Using Naturalistic Driving Data (10-1571) - A18
Chatterjee, Indrajit - University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Getis-Ord Spatial Statistics for Identifying Hot Spots Using Incident Management Data (10-2990) - A19
Songchitruksa, Praprut - Texas Transportation Institute
Zeng, Xiaosi - Texas A&M University
Event Date: Jan 10 2010 9:00AM- 5:00PM
Event Location: Marriott
Presiding Officers:
Karlaftis, Matthew G. - National Technical University of Athens, Greece
Williams, Billy M. - North Carolina State University, Raleigh
Sponsored By:
Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Computing Applications (ABJ70)
Statistical Methodology (ABJ80)
Event Description:
The purpose of this workshop is to provide an overview of time-series analysis, the various types that have been used in transportation, and when it is useful. This presentation will be illustrated with examples from studies in roadway infrastructure, traffic safety, and driver safety.
This full day workshop is targeted to researcher managers, researchers, and research support staff wishing to learn how to analyze data collected over time. This course will present time series analysis fundamentals, stressing applications of all basic concepts during the morning session. A variety of real-world traffic, safety, operations, and materials data sets will be sought and used. The afternoon session will present case studies on a variety of subjects using time series methods. Attendees are encouraged to submit data sets for inclusion in the course tutorials. Please contact Dr. Linda Boyle at [email protected] if interested in having your data used in the Workshop.
Agenda:
Morning session: What is Time-Series Analysis?
9:00
Introduction: Basic concepts, definitions of terms, some simple examples
Billy Williams
9:15
Exponential smoothing
Billy Williams
9:45
What is Arima?
Matthew Karlaftis
10:00
ARIMA with seasonal trends
10.30
Serial correlation and modeling errors
Matthew Karlaftis
11:00
Round table discussion
12:00
Lunch
Afternoon Session: Time-Series Applications
1:30
Modeling and Forecasting Freeway Traffic Data
Billy Williams
1:50
Case studies of Serial correlations
Venky Shankar
2:20
Motorway travel time prediction using kernel-based techniques
Nour-Eddin
2:50
ARIMA model examining intervention of graduated driver licensing programs
Linda Boyle
3:10
A time series analysis framework for transportation infrastructure management
Pablo L. Durango-Cohen
3:30
Question and Answer session
4:45
Wrap up
Simon Washington
Event Number:378
Event Title:
Innovative Statistical Methods in Transportation Research
Event Date:
Jan 11 2010 7:30PM- 9:30PM
Event Location:
Marriott
Presiding Officers:
Sponsored By:
Statistical Methodology (ABJ80)
Event Description:
The researchers in this session have applied advanced statistical methods to traffic data, transportation systems data, travel time estimation, and transportation safety and risk applications. Often the cutting-edge topics presented in this session will become mainstream within a couple of years. Researchers, research managers, and practitioners wishing to learn about and discuss innovative applications are encouraged to attend this session.
Presentations:Investigating Regression to the Mean in Before-and-After Speed Data Analysis (10-1209) - A01
Park, Peter Young-Jin - University of Saskatchewan, Canada
Lord, Dominique - Texas A&M University
Bias Properties of Bayesian Statistics in Finite Mixture of Negative Binomial Regression Models (10-0787) - A02
Park, Byung-Jung - Texas A&M University
Lord, Dominique - Texas A&M University
Hart, Jeff - Texas A&M University
Examining Methods for Estimating Crash Counts According to Their Collision Type (10-2572) - A03
Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy - Texas Transportation Institute
Patil, Sunil - Texas A&M University
Lord, Dominique - Texas A&M University
Development of Planning-Level Transportation Safety Models Using Full Bayesian Semiparametric Additive Techniques (10-0861) - A04
Hadayeghi, Alireza - CIMA+, Canada
Shalaby, Amer - University of Toronto, Canada
Persaud, Bhagwant - Ryerson University, Canada
Soft Computing, Parametric and Non-Parametric Statistics: A Review and Evaluation (10-0328) - A05
Karlaftis, Matthew G. - National Technical University of Athens, Greece
Vlahogianni, Eleni I. - National Technical University of Athens, Greece
Evaluation of Multivariate Poisson Log Normal Fully Bayesian Methods for Before-After Road Safety Evaluations (10-3838) - A06
Lan, Bo - Ryerson University, Canada
Persaud, Bhagwant - Ryerson University, Canada
Gaussian Processes for Traffic Flow Modeling and Forecasting (10-0752) - A07
Xie, Yuanchang - South Carolina State University
Zhao, Kaiguang - Texas A&M University
Sun, Ying - Texas A&M University
Chen, Dawei - Southeast University, China
Modeling Multiple Vehicle Occupant Injury Severity: Copula-Based Multivariate Approach (10-1807) - A08
Eluru, Naveen - University of Texas, Austin
Paleti, Rajesh - University of Texas, Austin
Pendyala, Ram M. - Arizona State University
Bhat, Chandra R. - University of Texas, Austin
Statistical Confidence Estimation Measures for Artificial Neural Networks: Application in Bus Travel Time Prediction (10-1071) - A09
Mazloumi, Ehsan - Monash University, Australia
Currie, Graham - Monash University, Australia
Rose, Geoffrey - Monash University, Australia
Sarvi, Majid - Monash University, Australia
Flexible Spatially Dependent Discrete Choice Model: Formulation and Application to Teenagers’ Weekday Recreational Activity Participation (10-1689) - A10
Bhat, Chandra R. - University of Texas, Austin
Sener, Ipek Nese - University of Texas, Austin
Eluru, Naveen - University of Texas, Austin
Investigation of Convergence and Accuracy Properties of Latin Hypercube Sampling Technique for Traffic Equilibrium Problem Under Capacity Uncertainty (10-3504) - A11
Li, Jian - Rutgers University
Ozbay, Kaan - Rutgers University
Design Requirements for Passing-Sight Distance: Risk-Based Approach (10-2992) - A12
El-Bassiouni, Shewkar - University of British Columbia, Canada
Sayed, Tarek - University of British Columbia, Canada
Link-Data-Based Approximation of Path Travel Time Distribution with Gaussian Copula Estimated Through Lasso (10-2769) - A13
Wan, Ke - Princeton University
Kornhauser, Alain L. - Princeton University
Clustering Approach to Online Freeway Traffic State Identification Using ITS Data (10-3007) - A14
Xia, Jingxin - Southeast University, China
Huang, Wei - Southeast University, China
Qian, Zhendong - Southeast University, China
Empirical Investigation of Continuous Logit Model for Departure Time Choice Using Bayesian Methods (10-1380) - A15
Lemp, Jason - University of Texas, Austin
Kockelman, Kara - University of Texas, Austin
Multiple Applications of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Technique in Predicting Rear-End Crashes at Unsignalized Intersections (10-0292) - A16
Haleem, Kirolos M. - University of Central Florida
Abdel-Aty, Mohamed A. - University of Central Florida
Santos, Joseph B - Florida Department of Transportation
Spatial Correlation in Multilevel Crash Frequency Models: Effects of Different Neighboring Structures (10-0333) - A17
Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan - Universidad de Costa Rica
Jovanis, Paul P. - Pennsylvania State University
Bayesian Trajectory-Based Reconstruction of Rear-Ending Events Using Naturalistic Driving Data (10-1571) - A18
Chatterjee, Indrajit - University of Minnesota, Twin Cities
Getis-Ord Spatial Statistics for Identifying Hot Spots Using Incident Management Data (10-2990) - A19
Songchitruksa, Praprut - Texas Transportation Institute
Zeng, Xiaosi - Texas A&M University